Social Science
Universal Background Checks, Permit Requirements, and Firearm Homicide Rates
Michael Siegel
Peer Reviewed
Abstract
ImportanceA loophole in US gun policy is that people can purchase guns from private sellers without going through any background check. Some states have addressed this loophole by requiring universal background checks for all gun sales, either at the point of sale or through a permit system; however, most studies on the effectiveness of universal background checks have not analyzed these 2 policy mechanisms separately.ObjectiveTo assess the association of point-of-sale background check law and gun permit law, separately, with firearm homicide rates from 1976 through 2022 using the same methods and model specification.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study used a difference-in-differences, fixed-effects regression model to evaluate firearm laws and firearm homicide rates in 48 states from 1976 through 2022. Data were obtained for 48 states except New Hampshire and Vermont and were analyzed in January 2024.ExposuresImplementation of either the law requiring a universal background check at point of sale for all firearms without a permit or the laws combining universal background checks and a state permit requirement for all gun purchasers.Main Outcomes and MeasuresAnnual, state-specific rates of firearm homicide per 100 000 people.ResultsFrom 1976 through 2022, 12 states adopted the universal background check laws without permitting requirements and 7 states implemented gun permit laws covering all firearms. The mean (SD) firearm homicide rate was 4.3 (0.1) per 100 000 people. Universal background checks for all firearms alone (without a state permitting system) were not associated with overall homicide rates (percentage change, 1.3%; 95% CI, −6.9% to 10.4%) or firearm homicide rates (percentage change, 3.7%; 95% CI, −5.3% to 13.6%). A law requiring a permit for the purchase of all firearms was associated with significantly lower overall homicide rates (percentage change, −15.4%; 95% CI, −28.5% to −0.01%) and firearm homicide rates (percentage change, −18.3%; 95% CI, −32.0% to −1.9%).Conclusions and RelevanceThis cross-sectional study found that universal background checks alone were not associated with firearm homicide rates, but a permit requirement for the purchase and possession of firearms was associated with substantially reduced rates of firearm homicide. The findings suggest that combining universal background checks and permit-to-purchase requirements is an effective strategy for firearm-related fatality reduction.
Key Question :
Are US state laws requiring universal background checks for all gun purchases and/or laws requiring permits to purchase guns associated with reduced rates of firearm homicide?
In this cross-sectional study of 48 states, permit requirements, but not universal background checks alone, were associated with reduced firearm homicide rates. The study found that a law requiring a permit to purchase firearms was linked to a significant reduction in both overall homicide rates and firearm homicide rates. However, universal background checks alone did not show an association with reduced firearm homicide rates.
What is the role of universal background checks in reducing firearm homicides?
Universal background checks for all firearms, when implemented without a permit requirement, were not associated with a reduction in firearm homicide rates. This finding suggests that background checks at the point of sale, by themselves, may not be sufficient in reducing gun violence.
How are permit-to-purchase laws associated with firearm homicide rates?
A law requiring a permit to purchase any firearm was associated with a significantly lower rate of firearm homicides. The study found an 18.3% reduction in firearm homicide rates and a 15.4% reduction in overall homicide rates in states with such laws. This suggests that permit requirements, when combined with background checks, are more effective in reducing firearm violence than background checks alone.
How did the study measure the impact of these laws?
The study used a difference-in-differences, fixed-effects regression model to analyze the association of these laws with firearm homicide rates in 48 states from 1976 through 2022. This method helped account for both state-specific and time-specific variations in homicide rates, offering a more accurate estimate of the law's effects.
What additional factors were found to influence homicide rates?
Several factors were associated with higher homicide rates, including the percentage of Black residents, violent crime rate, property crime rate, and the incarceration rate. These factors were controlled for in the analysis to isolate the effect of gun laws on homicide rates.
What is the main conclusion of the study?
The study concluded that while universal background checks alone were not linked to a reduction in firearm homicide rates, requiring a permit for the purchase and possession of firearms was associated with significantly lower firearm homicide rates. This suggests that a combination of universal background checks and permit requirements is a more effective strategy for reducing firearm-related fatalities.
