Air traffic inefficiencies and predictability evaluation using route mapping—the Tokyo International Airport case

Abstract

Air traffic inefficiencies lead to excess fuel burn, emissions and air traffic controller (ATCo) workload. Various stakeholders have developed metrics to assess the operation performance. Most metrics compare the actual trajectories to some benchmark ones to calculate excess time or distance. This research is inspired by cellular automata (CA) and develops a combined time-distance lateral inefficiency and predictability metric using discrete space and time mapping on published flight routes. The analysis is focused on Tokyo International Airport, but uses only track data and published routes, which makes it easily applicable to any other hub airport worldwide. The mapping and velocity analyses are used to investigate when and where ATCos are most likely to intervene to provide save separation. A metric which can be adjusted to evaluate both traffic flow predictability and efficiency is proposed. This metric can be applied to better understand current traffic and enable future improvements towards seamless air traffic flow management.