Social Science
Making Room for Our Forthcoming Rivers
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Andrea Gianni Cristoforo Nardini
Andrea Gianni Cristoforo Nardini
Fundación CREACUA, Calle 1A n.1-109, Riohacha, La Guajira 440001, Colombia
Abstract
This paper provides a schematic, conceptual trip across a set of paradigms that can be adopted to design flood control actions and the associated river setting, including the space allocated to the river. By building on such paradigms, it eventually delineates an integrated approach to identify a socially desirable river setting, under a climate changing reality. The key point addressed is that when residual Risk and Operation, Management and Replacement costs are considered to their full extent, even a basic economic analysis may suggest alternative river settings that can be more attractive, particularly if accompanied by suitable economic-administrative management measures. Emphasis is put on the deep uncertainty characterizing the whole decision problem and on the need for a drastic change of paradigm. The approach proposed can greatly improve current Flood Risk Management Plans responding to the European Flood Directive (Directive 2007/60/EC). It can also help to develop constructive dialogues with stakeholders, while enhancing the understanding of the problem. Although mainly intended to address a conceptual level, it also aims at providing an applicable method.
Key Questions
What is the main focus of the article "Making Room for Our Forthcoming Rivers"?
The article focuses on rethinking river settings and flood risk management in the context of climate change. It proposes a paradigm shift to allocate more space to rivers, emphasizing the need for adaptive planning, cost-benefit analysis, and integrated approaches to reduce flood risk while considering socio-economic and environmental factors.
Why is climate change a critical factor in rethinking river settings?
Climate change is critical because it leads to more frequent and intense flood events, altered hydrological regimes, and rising sea levels. These changes necessitate a reevaluation of traditional flood control methods and the allocation of more space to rivers to accommodate their dynamic behavior under future climate conditions.
What is the "classic engineering paradigm" of flood control?
The classic engineering paradigm involves controlling rivers through structural measures like levees, dredging, and bank defenses to prevent flooding. This approach aims to "put the territory in safe conditions" but often fails to account for residual risk, climate change, and the long-term costs of maintenance and replacement.
What is the "total risk paradigm" in flood management?
The total risk paradigm incorporates both the risk within protected areas and the residual risk from events exceeding design thresholds or structural failures. It emphasizes that flood risk cannot be entirely eliminated and advocates for a more comprehensive approach that includes reducing vulnerability and improving resilience.
How does the article propose to address uncertainty in flood risk management?
The article proposes a strict uncertainty framework, acknowledging that future climate scenarios and hydrological variables are highly uncertain. It suggests using adaptive planning, risk-averse decision-making, and flexible strategies to manage uncertainty and ensure long-term resilience.
What role does Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) play in the proposed approach?
CBA is used as a tool to evaluate and compare different river setting alternatives. It helps balance the costs of flood control measures (including operation, maintenance, and replacement) with the benefits of reduced risk and improved environmental and social outcomes.
What are "Nature-Based Solutions" (NBS) in flood management?
Nature-Based Solutions involve using natural processes and ecosystems to manage flood risk. Examples include restoring wetlands, creating floodplains, and using vegetation to stabilize riverbanks. NBS are seen as more sustainable and flexible compared to traditional "grey" infrastructure.
How does the article suggest managing flood risk in urban areas?
The article suggests equipping urban areas to "live with floods" by reducing exposure and vulnerability. This includes measures like water-proofing buildings, creating flood-resilient infrastructure, and designing cities to temporarily store or redirect floodwaters during extreme events.
What is the concept of "river corridors" in the article?
River corridors refer to wide areas allocated to rivers, allowing them to meander, flood, and adjust their morphology naturally. This approach reduces the need for rigid structural defenses and enhances the river's ability to adapt to changing hydrological conditions.
What are the key challenges in implementing the proposed paradigm shift?
Key challenges include overcoming socio-political resistance, securing funding for large-scale land use changes, and managing the long-term costs of maintaining adaptive flood control measures. Additionally, integrating climate change predictions into planning and ensuring stakeholder participation are critical.
How does the article address the role of governance in flood risk management?
The article emphasizes the need for strong governance to support adaptive decision-making, stakeholder participation, and the implementation of integrated flood risk management strategies. It calls for institutionalizing adaptive management processes and ensuring long-term financial and political commitment.
What is the significance of adaptive planning in flood risk management?
Adaptive planning is significant because it allows for flexibility in responding to uncertain future climate conditions. It involves periodically revisiting and adjusting flood risk management strategies based on new information, evolving risks, and changing societal priorities.
How does the article propose to balance flood risk reduction with environmental conservation?
The article proposes a multi-objective approach that balances flood risk reduction with environmental conservation by integrating ecological health, social well-being, and economic considerations into flood risk management plans. This includes prioritizing Nature-Based Solutions and restoring natural river processes.
What are the limitations of the current Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) in Europe?
Current FRMPs often have short planning horizons, fail to fully account for climate change, and rely too heavily on traditional engineering solutions. They also lack a unified, consistent approach to modeling and evaluating flood risk, and often do not incorporate long-term adaptive strategies.
What is the role of stakeholder participation in the proposed approach?
Stakeholder participation is crucial for identifying flood risk management priorities, generating innovative solutions, and ensuring social acceptance of proposed measures. The article advocates for a participatory decision-making process that involves stakeholders at all levels, from local communities to policymakers.
