Social Science
G. Reginald Daniel
Peer Reviewed
The last decade saw a rapid increase in the number of studies where time–frequency changes of radiocarbon dates have been used as a proxy for inferring past population dynamics. Although its universal and straightforward premise is appealing and undoubtedly offers some unique opportunities for research on long-term comparative demography, practical applications are far from trivial and riddled with issues pertaining to the very nature of the proxy under examination. Here I review the most common criticisms concerning the nature of radiocarbon time–frequency data as a demographic proxy, focusing on key statistical and inferential challenges. I then examine and compare recent methodological advances in the field by grouping them into three approaches: reconstructive, null-hypothesis significance testing, and model fitting. I will then conclude with some general recommendations for applying these techniques in archaeological and paleo-demographic research.
The article focuses on using radiocarbon time–frequency data as a proxy for inferring past population dynamics. It reviews challenges, methodological advances, and provides recommendations for applying these techniques in archaeological and paleo-demographic research.
Radiocarbon time–frequency data is used as a demographic proxy because it provides a universal and straightforward way to study long-term population trends. Changes in the frequency of radiocarbon dates are assumed to reflect changes in human activity and population size.
Key challenges include sampling biases, taphonomic processes, calibration effects, and statistical and inferential difficulties when interpreting the data to infer past population changes.
The three approaches are reconstructive (building population models), null-hypothesis significance testing (testing specific hypotheses), and model fitting (fitting statistical models to infer demographic trends).
The reconstructive approach involves building population models based on radiocarbon data. It analyzes changes in the frequency of radiocarbon dates over time, using statistical techniques to account for biases and uncertainties.
Null-hypothesis significance testing evaluates specific hypotheses about past population changes by testing whether observed patterns in radiocarbon data deviate from expected patterns under a null hypothesis.
Model fitting applies statistical models to radiocarbon data to infer demographic trends. It accounts for uncertainties and biases, providing more robust estimates of past population dynamics.
The article recommends addressing limitations and biases in radiocarbon data, using multiple methodological approaches to cross-validate results, and integrating radiocarbon data with other archaeological and environmental proxies.
The article provides a comprehensive review of challenges and methodological advances in using radiocarbon data as a demographic proxy. It offers practical recommendations to improve the accuracy and reliability of demographic inferences.
The article highlights the potential of radiocarbon data for studying long-term demographic trends but emphasizes the need for rigorous methods to address its limitations. This has implications for understanding human-environment interactions, cultural evolution, and population change in the past.
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2022 December | 27 | 27 |
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2022 September | 34 | 34 |
2022 August | 69 | 69 |
2022 July | 55 | 55 |
Total | 1474 | 1474 |
Show by month | Manuscript | Video Summary |
---|---|---|
2025 February | 11 | 11 |
2025 January | 101 | 101 |
2024 December | 55 | 55 |
2024 November | 78 | 78 |
2024 October | 124 | 124 |
2024 September | 85 | 85 |
2024 August | 39 | 39 |
2024 July | 54 | 54 |
2024 June | 40 | 40 |
2024 May | 40 | 40 |
2024 April | 56 | 56 |
2024 March | 48 | 48 |
2024 February | 35 | 35 |
2024 January | 41 | 41 |
2023 December | 48 | 48 |
2023 November | 52 | 52 |
2023 October | 32 | 32 |
2023 September | 32 | 32 |
2023 August | 21 | 21 |
2023 July | 43 | 43 |
2023 June | 35 | 35 |
2023 May | 40 | 40 |
2023 April | 40 | 40 |
2023 March | 44 | 44 |
2023 February | 2 | 2 |
2023 January | 5 | 5 |
2022 December | 27 | 27 |
2022 November | 60 | 60 |
2022 October | 28 | 28 |
2022 September | 34 | 34 |
2022 August | 69 | 69 |
2022 July | 55 | 55 |
Total | 1474 | 1474 |