Environmental, energy security, and energy equity (3E) benefits of net-zero emission strategy in a developing country: A case study of Nepal

Abstract

There is a growing number of national, subnational and even company targets for net-zero emissions of CO2 in support of the Paris Climate Agreement goals of limiting the global average temperature increase within 1.5 °C by 2100. The challenges faced by developing countries in achieving net-zero emissions targets are, however, very prominent due to their common desire for rapid economic growth, improved socio-economic conditions, and greater climate resilience. In addition, this has to overcome many constraints related to the competitiveness, acceptability, and sustainability of proposed and planned low-carbon initiatives. It is thus very important to understand the economic and technical characteristics of net-zero emissions concepts and pathways. The constraints can best be addressed if actual and transparent co-benefits related to these initiatives are identified and reflected during their implementation. Here we employ the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to examine Nepal’s recently introduced ‘Long-term Strategy for Net-zero Emissions’ and to estimate anticipated co-benefits in terms of reducing air pollutants emission and enhancing energy security and energy equity. Under the reference scenario (REF), the annual CO2 emission is expected to increase from 23 MtCO2 in 2019 to 79 MtCO2 in 2050 with significant increase in air pollutants emissions in the range of 60% (Organic Carbon) to 183% (SO2), increase in energy import dependency, reaching electricity consumption per capita below one-quarter of the world average. Under the ‘With Additional Measures (WAM)’ strategy scenario, air pollutants would be reduced in the range of 70% (Organic Carbon) to 85% (Black Carbon) respectively, in 2050 as compared to the REF. Similarly, it results drastic improvement in energy security indicators and energy equity. It is expected that the findings of this study will provide useful input to policymakers, private sector, societal actors and researchers in support of successful implementation of the initiatives for sustainable socio-economic transformation pathways.

What is the main focus of this study?

The study examines Nepal’s ‘Long-term Strategy for Net-zero Emissions’ and uses the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to explore how the country can achieve its climate goals. It also looks at the co-benefits of these efforts, such as reducing air pollution, improving energy security, and promoting energy equity.

Why is achieving net-zero emissions challenging for developing countries like Nepal?

Developing countries like Nepal face unique challenges, including the need for rapid economic growth, improved living standards, and climate resilience. Balancing these priorities with the transition to low-carbon energy systems is difficult due to issues like cost, competitiveness, and public acceptance.

What are the key findings of the study?

Under the reference scenario (REF), Nepal’s CO2 emissions are projected to rise from 23 million tons in 2019 to 79 million tons by 2050, with significant increases in air pollutants. However, under the ‘With Additional Measures (WAM)’ scenario, air pollutants could be reduced by 70-85%, while energy security and equity would improve dramatically.

What are the co-benefits of Nepal’s net-zero strategy?

The WAM scenario not only reduces CO2 emissions but also cuts air pollutants like black carbon and organic carbon. It also improves energy security by reducing dependence on energy imports and enhances energy equity by making electricity more accessible to the population.

How can this study help policymakers?

The study provides valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and researchers by highlighting the economic, environmental, and social benefits of Nepal’s net-zero strategy. It emphasizes the importance of transparently identifying and communicating these co-benefits to gain public support and ensure successful implementation.

What tools were used in this study?

The researchers used the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), a tool for energy and environmental planning, to model Nepal’s emissions and analyze the impacts of different scenarios.