Physics Maths Engineering
Assessment of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation Forecast Skill for Reservoir Operation in the Yaque Del Norte River, Dominican Republic
Peer Reviewed
Related Subjects
Abstract
Key Questions about S2S Precipitation Forecasting in the Yaque del Norte River Basin
The article "Assessment of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation Forecast Skill for Reservoir Operation in the Yaque del Norte River, Dominican Republic" evaluates the effectiveness of three methods for generating S2S precipitation forecasts to enhance reservoir management in the Yaque del Norte River basin. The study found that while no single method consistently outperformed the others, each provided valuable insights for operational forecasting. The authors emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate forecasting methods to improve water resource management in the region.
1. What are the three methods evaluated for generating S2S precipitation forecasts?
The study examines:
- Bias-Corrected Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Utilizing seasonal Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecasts adjusted with monthly change factors derived from historical data.
- Stochastic Weather Generation: Employing historical precipitation records and ENSO indices to parameterize a stochastic weather generator.
- Satellite-Based Precipitation Time Series: Selecting an ensemble of historical satellite-based mean areal precipitation (MAP) time series conditioned on the state of the CFS forecast at the season's start.
2. What were the findings regarding the performance of these forecasting methods?
The study concluded that no single method consistently outperformed the others across all seasons. Each approach offered unique advantages, and their effectiveness varied depending on specific conditions and time frames. This variability underscores the necessity of selecting the most suitable forecasting method based on the operational context.
3. How do these findings contribute to improving water resource management in the Yaque del Norte River basin?
By assessing the skill of different S2S precipitation forecasting methods, the study provides valuable insights for developing an operational forecast system tailored to the Yaque del Norte River basin. Implementing the most effective forecasting methods can enhance reservoir operation strategies, leading to more efficient water resource management and better preparedness for seasonal variations.
